An unusual confluence of forecast storm tracks is shown for the next several days
By Caribbean News Now contributor
MIAMI, USA -- Hurricane Nicole in the Atlantic weakened to a tropical storm on Friday and, after a continued period of meandering, is forecast to approach Bermuda between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Meanwhile, after hugging the coast of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, Hurricane Matthew is forecast to loop back towards The Bahamas as a tropical storm or depression, also between Tuesday and Wednesday.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, at 5:00 pm EDT on Friday, the centre of Tropical Storm Nicole was located about 365 miles (590 km) south of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the centre.
Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few days.
According to Forecaster Kimberlain, interaction with weakening Matthew to the west should cause Nicole to begin moving northwestward or north-northwestward. A turn toward the north is expected once the interaction ends.
The cyclone could weaken a bit further or remain in a steady state as a weak tropical storm for two to three days, after which conditions support some re-intensification.
In the meantime, Forecaster Avila said that Matthew has weakened a little bit and the hurricane is heading toward an area of increasing shear, which should result in gradual weakening. The shear is forecast to continue during the next five days, so additional weakening is anticipated and Matthew is expected to be a tropical depression by the end of the forecast period.
On Saturday, the hurricane will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern should induce a northeastward and then eastward motion during the next two days. After that time, the steering flow becomes very complex, and models turn the cyclone southward and southwestward embedded within the flow on the west side of a mid-level trough.