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NNP 'likely' to win Grenada election
Published on February 15, 2013 Email To Friend    Print Version

ST GEORGE’S, Grenada -- Analysis of polling data and a voter turnout equivalent to that of 2008 give the New National Party (NNP) a greater chance of victory over the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Tuesday’s general election, a Grenadian university professor has concluded.

Dr Wayne Sandiford, in a public lecture on Wednesday night examining the “likely outcome” of the elections, said a projection of the winner is based on the assumption that the National Democratic Congress has lost support since assuming office in 2008.

The analysis is also presentation of “pure numbers” that are “stripped of emotions”.

The NDC formed the government in 2008 after an 11 - 4 victory over the New National Party.

The voter turnout was more than 80 percent. NDC captured 40.79 percent of all votes cast, and the NNP picked up 38.25 percent.

Sandiford, a professor of economics at St George’s University (SGU), said the only likelihood of an NDC victory next week is with a voter turnout above 80 percent; and with a voter swing away from the National Democratic Congress of two percent or less.

The professor said data suggest that a swing of three percent to the New National Party could possibly set the NNP to winning nine of the 15 parliamentary seats.

With a swing of 3.5 percent, he added, the outcome could leave NDC winning just the constituencies of St David and St George’s North East.

A voter swing away from the NDC of five percent or more indicates that “it’s basically game over” for the National Democratic Congress, Sandiford said.

“I agree with nothing,” the SGU professor said. “I’m just saying that’s the data. I’m just doing a statistical analysis.”

Voter turnout rate, while important, is more influential in determining by how much a candidate wins a constituency, rather than in deciding the overall election outcome, Sandiford argued.

He said he also won’t put “too much weight” on party manifestos to influence voters.

Both the NDC and NNP launched their election manifestos this week.
 
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