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Commentary: The US midterm elections: Reading the tea leaves!
Published on February 20, 2014 Email To Friend    Print Version

By Rebecca Theodore

It appears that the impressive feat where pollsters always feel the need to portray their political forecast as truth is now resulting in pyrrhic victories in both conservative and liberal discourses in Washington. In turn, the publicity of political pressure to win the House of Representatives in November is not only cowed by fortunes sweet favor, but also by many trade-offs of pseudo credulities and misgivings as well.

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Rebecca Theodore is an op-ed columnist based in Washington, DC. She writes on national security and political issues. Follow her on twitter @rebethd or email at rebethd@aol.com
Subsequently, it is in conjunction with the many negatives that protracts the perimeters of winning the House of Representatives that the Democrats bungled roll-out of the Affordable Care Act continues to fault the political landscape. Added to this, the Republicans partial government shutdown last October float messages of words locked in a misled fate.

And it is within this scope that the speaker’s gavel lies at stake.

But while many Americans keep blaming Republicans for the shutdown, thus making several GOP House incumbents electorally vulnerable in November, president Obama’s approval ratings of below 50 percent and Congressional Democrats fading popularity also comes into sharp play to the 17 seats needed by Democrats to win control of the House.

Although CNN/ORC polls indicate that “Democrats have lost the advantage and Republicans now have a slight edge in the battle for control of the House,” the Republicans lethal political brands continue to improve democratic expectations.
Most obvious is Rand Paul’s (R-Kentucky) pronouncements that the “GOP needs a better message and one that appeals to people in a way they can understand.”

Clearly, this shows that a diversity problem exist within the Republican camp and much efforts are needed to combine the political to the cultural if the House is to be won in November.

As Paul further states, “There must be a transformation of the Republican party. Republicans will not win the House unless the party changes.”

Statistics also point to the fact that state legislatures in 14 states (11 of which are Republican controlled) have passed voter ID laws that eliminate blacks from the voting process. This means that there is allegedly a suppression of the black vote by Republicans and that there is also no absence of hysteria where the alienation of the Hispanic vote and Tea Party race-centered rhetoric are concerned.

Yet, despite this dismal forecast, winning the House still seems a tough sell for Democrats. Even if their aim of reducing economic inequality and boosting workers income ring true, political scientists still affirm that “the president need to take a more strategic approach to policy making and improve relations with Congressional Democrats to win the House.”

Moreover, according to historical precedents, “midterm elections favor the party that is not in the White House.” Gallup data further reveal that, since 1946, presidents with low approval ratings below 50 percent lose an average of 36 House seats and that presidents with approval ratings above 50 percent still lose an average of 14 seats.

Still, it must also be observed that there must be transparency in the legislative process if the House is to adhere to its reputation of ‘the will of the American people.’ Hence, clauses of immigration reform and the debt ceiling should also be brought to light. According to informed data, “the voting population has now tilted to a large number of younger, lower income, single diversified faction” thus further demanding the attention of Republicans.

However, while critics charge that it is way too early to cast predictions, and the elections are a long way away in political timing, at this point it is still safe to admit that the midterm elections will proposition an important portrait of a changing nation and a revolving theme to the way things will be done in Washington.

In this witness, tea leaves are now scattered all over the cup in confusion. As to whether the leaves will form lines or figures, pollsters are continuing to read the cup.
 
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